As the next administration takes shape, countless voices are vying for influence over the future of America’s space program. I’d wager one in particular — someone apparently very close to the President-elect — might be suggesting a bold new direction: “Sir. Forget racing China to the moon,” Elon Musk may be saying. “We’re almost ready with Starship. Announce we’ll launch humans to Mars by 2029 — the Apollo anniversary. You’ll go down in history! You’ll be as big as Kennedy!”
If I had that access, it’s exactly what I’d be saying.
Think about it. SpaceX is making remarkable progress on Starship. If they can overcome FAA regulatory hurdles, they could have a revolutionary, reusable Earth-to-space system operational within a year. The next step, in-orbit refueling, could take another year or two to master. By 2028, Starship could be ready for missions to the moon, Mars, or beyond. Right behind it will be Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin with New Glenn.
Meanwhile, the bloated $30-plus billion Space Launch System (SLS) can barely reach lunar orbit, let alone support a landing on its own, even as it drains NASA’s coffers. In the age of reusable rocket ships, its Orion capsule is obsolete, and the Gateway Lunar Station is, well, no one really knows what it’s for. Together, these money-sucking deadline-busting programs are sabotaging projects all over the agency while perpetuating the fantasy that they’ll someday support a mission to Mars — even as they hand the moon to China. Musk is heading there anyway, with or without the backing of the United States government. So why keep sinking money into a dead end? It’s time to cut our losses. The SLS? Canceled. The Orion capsule? Canceled. The Gateway program? Canceled.” No half-measures. It’s like a bad marriage: better to pay the cancellation fees and move on.
Ironically, Artemis — NASA’s moon program — is arguably more complex than a Starship mission to Mars. Yes, going to Mars includes many other new challenges, including radiation, gravity and the vast distances to be traveled. Still, as any expert on space travel will tell you, it’s the beginning and end of a space voyage when most of the dangerous stuff happens. I understand I am oversimplifying, but far less than those who have pitched the SLS/Artemis architecture are. For example, Artemis requires the same orbital refueling capability that a Starship needs for Mars but then adds unnecessary layers: a space station, an Orion capsule, intricate docking maneuvers, and crew transfers between different spacecraft.
In contrast, the same Starship that launches from Earth can land on another celestial body and return with little more than variations on the refueling process. A Starship-based Mars mission simplifies to variations on “launch, refuel, land, return, refuel, land.” Other than where they occur, the current development plan for Starship already includes learning and de-risking most of these procedures.
To be clear, a first Mars mission by 2029 won’t by itself establish the permanent settlement Musk envisions. It will be more like Apollo or even Lewis and Clark: a brief, symbolic and scientific visit to prove what’s possible. It can even carry NASA astronauts, perhaps reassigned from Artemis. However, unlike Apollo, which essentially ended after Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin’s historic selfies, this mission will harken to Lewis and Clark — a proof of concept, followed by a stream of Starship conestogas led and funded by the billionaire and his fellow Red Planet pioneers.
Regarding the “Moon Race” we are about to lose to China, we can reimagine the moon program once we eclipse the prestige of being “first” on the moon by leapfrogging to Mars. Rather than a hollow repeat of Apollo, we can pick up where those heroes left off. Instead of the current reenactment with the addition of a lunar pup tent-style campsite, we could focus on a sustainable moon village, with space agencies as anchor tenants, alongside academic and commercial enterprises sharing infrastructure. Companies like Blue Origin can develop transport systems like its Blue Moon lander to service the arena. This approach also builds on the successful NASA Commercial Lunar Development program with Intuitive Machines, Firefly and Astrobotic.
This strategy also bolsters the American-led development of Earth’s orbital street. At least four U.S.-based commercial low Earth orbit destinations (CLDs) are under development. Redirecting funds saved from the SLS boondoggle would allow NASA to support multiple orbital stations as an anchor tenant. By irrevocably committing to 2030 as the date to phase out ISS, NASA could give the CLDs the certainty they need to raise capital and sign tenants and users, sparking a thriving orbital economy. New labs, industrial and medical facilities, and even space hotels would flourish. Why limit orbital expansion because of some outdated bureaucratic bias towards “down-selecting” just as the highway to space opens? It’s crazy. Let’s build, baby, build!
Beyond Earth, the vast potential of free space beckons. Jeff Bezos’ vision for orbital habitats aligns with Gerard K. O’Neill’s concept of the High Frontier. With heavy-lift rocketships like Starship, New Glenn, and the others coming down the production line, as Musk pushes toward Mars, others will lay the groundwork for sustainable space-based industries and begin taking pressure off the Earth. From harvesting resources on the moon or asteroids to space-based solar power plants that can beam clean energy to the earth, we can alleviate resource strain and foster unparalleled innovation. Similar to today’s fusion research funding, strategic government investment could double our bets on a sustainable future.
This shift in focus and approach will be jarring for the bureaucratic space establishment, but of all the areas of the government that are both the most wasteful and hold the most potential, our human spaceflight program is number one. By making these hard decisions and taking on entrenched interests that clearly represent a present danger to the national strategic interest, the new administration and Congress would create the opportunity to massively grow our economy, even as we reduce pressure on the planet and expand our capabilities for space science by orders of magnitude.
A Mars Next mission, combined with an All of the Above national space strategy, offers a better, cheaper, faster approach to opening the frontier that replaces dead ends with pathways to a thriving, sustainable and strategically dominant presence in space.
Committing to Mars by 2029, paired with a holistic vision for cislunar development, would inspire the world, bolster U.S. leadership in the orbital economy and defuse competition with China — perhaps even fostering collaboration. This isn’t just about securing America’s place in history, it’s about opening the solar system to humanity, creating unprecedented opportunities for innovation, cooperation and prosperity. It’s also the perfect time and way to perhaps yank the heads of today’s generations up from the screens of their silos and towards a shared and exciting dream.
Moments of such profound, historic potential are rare. This is one of them. The new president has the chance to go down in history as the person who lifted us up and out to the stars. With cheap access to space and the right partnerships between our government and our pioneers, we don’t need to choose between the moon and Mars. It’s the moon and Mars. Earth and the heavens. A thriving presence in space isn’t just a dream — it’s within our grasp. We need only reach out and take it.
Rick Tumlinson founded the EarthLight Foundation and SpaceFund, a venture capital firm. He co-founded The Space Frontier Foundation, was a founding board member of the XPrize, and hosts “The Space Revolution” on iRoc Space Radio, part of the iHeart Radio Network.
