Saturday, August 2, 2025

Heatwaves are surpassing the extremes predicted by climate models

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Heatwaves are surpassing the extremes predicted by climate models

The UK experienced a record-breaking heatwave in July 2022

DAMIEN MEYER/AFP via Getty Images

We should brace for worse-than-expected heatwaves in the years ahead, as climate models are underestimating the potency of these events in some areas, including the UK and northern France, southern Australia and northern Canada.

As the world warms further, these and other areas could see extremes of heat that outpace those climate models are projecting, says Kai Kornhuber at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria.

“Extreme event projections should be considered as conservative estimates,”…

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