On Thursday October 10th the California Coastal Commission departed from its mission to protect and enhance California’s coast and ocean by denying the Vanderberg Space Force Base’s request for a necessary increase in the number of SpaceX launches to get critical military capability on orbit. If SpaceX or the Space Force (USSF) had done something to violate a California Coastal Commission (CCC) rule (like disturb an endangered species), then fine, take sanctioning action. But they did not.
The CCC has entered the world stage by becoming part of the “Great Power Competition” between the U.S. and China and Russia. Unfortunately, they did not enter this power competition on the side of the U.S. by handcuffing our ability to achieve our national security strategy.
Our nation’s deliberate response to emerging threats is at risk if the CCC’s ruling stands. The U.S. has long recognized that access to space is a vital national and global interest. Not having required space capabilities on orbit undercuts the baseline strategies of the USSF. Low-Earth orbiting weather spacecraft, intelligence systems, global communications capability and elements of new proliferated constellations rely exclusively on the Vandenberg west coast space port. The CCC restrictions endanger our entire nation and could well cost lives. Denying the increased launch rate from Vandenberg provides Russia and China a big military victory without these adversaries having to commit any of their military resources.
Over the past 30 years, the U.S. has been the dominant player in space, and has assured the free and open use of space. This has nurtured a vibrant national, international and commercial economy in space. Both the military and civilian worlds now depend on capabilities such as the Global Positioning System, satellite communications, global broadcast, weather monitoring and remote sensing. Unfortunately, external threats have emerged and access to space and the freedom to maneuver in space can no longer be treated as a given. Today, there are threats to our critical space capabilities. China and Russia have developed the capability to eliminate satellites through attacks from the ground, direct ascent attacks, co-orbital attacks (both kinetic and non-kinetic), jamming, spoofing and laser dazzling. The Space Force, in response, has adopted a strategy of affordable resilience, using proliferation as its centerpiece. In addition to proliferation, the Space Force has implemented a robust use of commercial space systems to support resilience. In this rapidly evolving threat environment, the more options we have, the better we can respond in a flexible and agile fashion to new challenges.
The mission of the USSF is to deter conflict in space and avoid a costly conflict that could have worldwide military, economic and social implications. Space is becoming a dangerous vulnerable place in which to operate — not just for us, but for the commercial and civil markets across the world. The threats are growing and expanding every day, and our ability to assure that space capabilities are always available in this threatening environment is critically important. These systems must be secure and protected. If our critical space-based capabilities are disrupted or denied, the consequences could be dire. The truth is that our adversaries now pose a clear and present threat to our national security, making the case for a strong defensive posture in space along with the critical access to space that Vandenberg provides. California’s Vandenberg is unique among U.S. space ports in that it enables launches into polar orbit by launching southerly without overflying populated areas.
Vandenberg now comes under the purview of the USSF to respond to new threats in space against the U.S., our allies and supporting commercial space systems. These threats, combined with new and advanced hypersonic threats to American and allied interests, have put U.S. military superiority at risk along with the lives of our men and women in uniform. In its short five-year history, the USSF has turned our military space programs on a dime, moving to proliferated constellations to counteract the threats to our space-based capabilities, including the integration of commercial communications and Tactical Surveillance, Reconnaissance and Tracking (TacSRT) into the fabric of military space, along with newly demonstrated responsive launch capabilities. This has considerably increased the number of SpaceX launches as the Space Force seeks to address:
- Increased military demand as the USSF moves to proliferated constellations to respond to adversary demonstrated capabilities in space and ramped up TacSRT systems,
- Increased commercial demands and
- The increased reliance on Starlink launches to support allies and provide critical communications in natural disasters such as hurricane Helene.
In order to implement its new strategy, the USSF must increase the number of SpaceX launches from Vandenberg from 50 by the end of this year to 100 or more annual launches going forward. Vandenberg has always bent over backwards to be a good neighbor in California, and they are committed to continue doing their best to be a responsible steward of the amazing national treasure in the California coastline that they occupy. They could have rightfully declared the launch activities at Vandenberg to be a federal agency activity, a designation that would mean that the CCC could not regulate it through its permit process. Vandenberg has opted to work within the CCC’s purview. While sometimes difficult and costly, Vandenberg has respected the wishes of the Commission as well as those of California and Santa Barbara County.
While the CCC can approve or deny permits from private companies and individuals that affect the coast, it can’t deny a federal activity. At the same time, the state agency has increasingly questioned in public meetings whether SpaceX should instead be forced to apply for launch permits going forward since 80% to 87% of its rocket launches are carrying satellites for one of Elon Musk’s other private companies rather than U.S. government payloads. While Starlink, other commercial communications and TacSRT missions are commercial missions, they have become part of the fabric of USSF strategy, and both are supporting military and military-supported humanitarian operations. This makes the assumption that these are purely commercial not accurate. Therefore, the commission must reach an agreement with the military, known as a federal consistency plan, to regulate the impacts on the coast and wildlife.
To be fair, the CCC may not know how critical commercial communications and TacSRT have become to the fabric of the USSF and U.S. Space Command. These capabilities, along with the ability to get them to space, are critical to maintaining our ability to defend our nation. California Governor Gavin Newsom understands all of this. Considering this, I believe that the CCC must reconsider its ruling. The free and open use of space for all must be preserved, and Vandenberg must be able to implement our national security strategy of increasing launch rates to implement proliferated constellations, critical commercial TacSRT and communications capabilities needed in these challenging times.
Major General Tom Taverney retired in 2006 as Vice Commander of Air Force Space Command.
